God, I hate predicting things. Even my political science professor, who is also a pollster, says “explain, don’t predict.” That’s why I’ve been slow to rest Barack Obama’s victory on the laurels of nationwide electoral predictions. However, the possibilities deserve an analysis.

According to CNN, NPR, RCP and electoral-vote.com, Obama could conceivably come away with 300+ electoral votes. If these state-by-state polls are correct, then how goes Pennsylvania so goes the nation. If you would rather be in bed by 10 p.m. than up late celebrating a monumentous victory, Penn’s 21 electoral votes will tell us whether Obama’s got it in the bag. Both candidates have set up camp in the Keystone State, duking it out from Philly to Pittsy.

If Obama wins Penn and holds onto all of the “Democratic-leaning” states (via NPR’s analysis), and John McCain wins all the tossups including Ohio, Nevada and Florida, we can still expect to see 286 electoral votes go Obama’s way (he needs 270 to win).

However, if McCain flips Penn, which is currently polling +10 for Obama, then it will be an out-and-out fight for North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada, which are all currently leaning toward Obama. Winning just one of these states will put Obama over the threshold in a “McCain Wins Penn” scenario.

In a third scenario, Obama wins Pennsylvania and Florida (now +3.3 Obama), and I get to make D.C. airfare reservations on Tuesday night instead of Wednesday morning.

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