Ross Perot became a footnote in history with his quirky demeanor and illustrated charts. His amusing presentation of a presidential campaign, however, tried to celebritize the most important domestic issue that needs to be addressed next year: deficit spending.

In an homage to Perot, who returned this year with PerotCharts.com, I will give a quick tutorial on our government’s budgeting terms.
Outlay: A wonkish way to say “money spent.”
Receipt: A wonkish way to say “tax revenue,” or any other way the government gets money.
Deficit: The national government creates a budget. Not in so many steps, of course, but there you have it. If the outlay total is more than receipt total, you get a deficit. Basically, if your paycheck is $90 and your bill is $100, you come out with a deficit. If the receipts exceed outlays, you get a budget surplus. In 2007, the deficit was $162 BILLION.
National Debt: This is the total obligation on every “dollar” the U.S. owes. Our government can owe money on various types of bonds sold to investors. This gives us a quick injection of money to cover each year’s deficit, but we eventually have to pay this back plus interest. You’ll often hear about how our economy is owned byforiegn governments, and this is it. The National Debt now stands at $10.53 TRILLION and counting.
Debt Interest: This is the constant obligation of paying off the interest accrued on the bonds. In 2007, it accounted for almost 10 percent of the national budget, or about $237 BILLION.

There are dozens of other terms that are important in understanding the impending budget crisis, but as my blog says, I’m not an expert. One more that I should mention, though, is the Social Security Trust Fund. Typically, the benefactors of a trust fund regularly add money into it and withdraw it later. That’s what make the term “Trust Fund” so hilarious in this context. When you get a paycheck, a portion goes to Social Security. You may think that money is being sent to a special account that you can access when you turn 65, but nope, it’s going directly to someone who’s already retired.

Baby Boomers will be eligible to receive their Social Security pension in 2011.

Current workers are financing current retirees. Unfortunately by 2017, the receipts from future workers won’t be able to cover outlays to future retirees. To cover the obligation to senior citizens, the government -are you ready? – will begin borrowing from itself. lolz. This “intragovernmental debt” doesn’t show up in our traditional national debt. The only way to correct this problem without borrowing exhorbitantly would be to increase the payroll tax or reduce Social Security benefits.

Because it is so hard for politicians to reduce benefits or increase taxes, they’ve had to come up with a less politically-painful way to cover costs: borrow it. They treat it like a business, but we have borrowed so much that I’m afraid we will soon reach our limit. What if the economic crisis extends to the U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, which are currently shielded from trouble, and China or Japan decide to stop borrowing because the investment isn’t as safe? We’ll have hit a brick wall and long-running government services like Medicare and Medicade (together 21 percent of the budget) will dry up like a short well.

This doesn’t ring alarm bells like a terrorist attack or the stock market plunging, but the failure of deficit spending scares me enough to keep a close eye on it. It is my single issue, above all else, but it’s not the only issue. I don’t support Bob Barr, even though his plan would treat this problem better. I don’t support John McCain even though he proposes an 18 percent cut in discretionary spending.

[Oh, and about "pork barrel earmarks," they only represent about $16.5 billion of the total federal budget, or less than 1 percent]

God, I hate predicting things. Even my political science professor, who is also a pollster, says “explain, don’t predict.” That’s why I’ve been slow to rest Barack Obama’s victory on the laurels of nationwide electoral predictions. However, the possibilities deserve an analysis.

According to CNN, NPR, RCP and electoral-vote.com, Obama could conceivably come away with 300+ electoral votes. If these state-by-state polls are correct, then how goes Pennsylvania so goes the nation. If you would rather be in bed by 10 p.m. than up late celebrating a monumentous victory, Penn’s 21 electoral votes will tell us whether Obama’s got it in the bag. Both candidates have set up camp in the Keystone State, duking it out from Philly to Pittsy.

If Obama wins Penn and holds onto all of the “Democratic-leaning” states (via NPR’s analysis), and John McCain wins all the tossups including Ohio, Nevada and Florida, we can still expect to see 286 electoral votes go Obama’s way (he needs 270 to win).

However, if McCain flips Penn, which is currently polling +10 for Obama, then it will be an out-and-out fight for North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada, which are all currently leaning toward Obama. Winning just one of these states will put Obama over the threshold in a “McCain Wins Penn” scenario.

In a third scenario, Obama wins Pennsylvania and Florida (now +3.3 Obama), and I get to make D.C. airfare reservations on Tuesday night instead of Wednesday morning.

Oklahoma may very well be the only place in America where Barack Obama’s candidacy will hurt local Democrats. We are teetering on the very edge of a Republican takeover of the State Senate, and we’re still down a handful of seats in the State House. Even though Democrats outnumber Republicans in this state by 221,881 registered voters, we haven’t picked Democratic presidential electors since Nixon.

Opinion polls show Obama down about 30 points to John McCain. If Republican legislative candidates were able to convince their voters to mark a straight-party ticket, we could be looking at a huge blowout.

In other conservative states like Mississippi, North Carolina and West Virginia, Democrats currently have a strong hold on the legislatures. The one thing those states have in common is a spread of only 10 points between the presidential candidates. Even if Obama were to have a down-ticket drag on local Democratic politics, the legislatures would be relatively safe in Democratic hands.

Oklahoma is one of those odd Southern states that still elect Democrats on the local level. It’s almost as if someone forgot to tell them Southern Democrats started switching parties in the ’60s. Maintaining a Democratic hold on legislative and local positions will reveal how well Oklahoma Democrats are able to distance ourselves from liberal Coastal Democrats, while still staying true to our roots in social justice and progressive, agrarian economics.

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